National Review Maps Out Path To BrokeTown

National Review's Brian Bolduc crunches some numbers to show how its possible no one can win the first ballot on the convention floor:

Here’s a not-impossible outcome: Mitt Romney wins 1,131 delegates, Newt Gingrich gets 954, and Ron Paul wins 181....

...Paul wins the Iowa caucuses with 25 percent of the vote. Romney places second with 20 percent and Gingrich third with 15 percent...

...Romney wins New Hampshire, but with only 30 percent of the vote, as a newly invigorated Paul and a slowly rising Jon Huntsman grab 25 and 15 percent of the vote respectively...

...Gingrich triumphs in South Carolina with 50 percent of the vote as the anti-Romney forces coalesce around him [and] follows up that victory with a 55 percent win in Florida...

... the race comes down to Romney, Gingrich, and Paul. Romney and Gingrich are the main contenders, but Paul wins about 10 percent of the vote in the primaries and 20 percent in the caucuses, where his dedicated followers are especially effective...

...Romney wins northern states, such as Vermont, and Gingrich wins southern states, such as Tennessee...

...After April 1, when the winner-take-all primaries begin, Romney cleans up: He wins all the votes of big blue states such as New York, California, and New Jersey. But Gingrich holds his own, scoring strong wins in Pennsylvania and Ohio. When the delegates assemble in Tampa, no candidate has a majority.