Gingrich Maps Out Strategy For Going Broke

Yesterday, Newt Gingrich suggested his game plan is to win the nomination at a brokered convention. From the NYT:

“Romney’s got a very real challenge in trying to get a majority at the convention,” Mr. Gingrich told reporters outside a church in this Tampa suburb.

“This party is not going to nominate somebody who is a pro-abortion, pro-gun control, pro-tax-increase liberal,” Mr. Gingrich said. “Look, it’s not going to happen.”

He never used the words “brokered convention,” but he outlined the makings of one.

“We have no evidence yet that Romney anywhere is coming close to getting a majority,” Mr. Gingrich said. “And I think when you take all of the non-Romney votes, it’s very likely that at the convention there will be a non-Romney majority — and maybe a very substantial one — and my job is to convert that into a pro-Gingrich majority.”

He vowed to mount “a straight-out contest for the next four or five months” and said he would go “all the way to the convention.”

Are Jeb, Mitch and Bobby Feeling A Draft?

Former Blue Dog Democratic congressman and failed gubernatorial candidate Artur Davis today pens a call to draft Jeb Bush at a brokered convention, in the National Review ... presumably ending his membership in the Democratic Party:

The less probable outcome is that Jeb Bush would abandon a year of disclaimers to accept a draft in a brokered convention. But there are two reasons he might. The first is that an Obama landslide would devastate conservatism enough that it might be irreparable for a generation. One doesn’t have to subscribe to Gingrich’s Manichean rhetoric to concede that an Obama sweep would, for the first time in 76 years, institute government-centered, redistributionist economics as the country’s central governing philosophy. It would be, after all, the agenda that Obama and congressional Democrats had campaigned on, in contrast to the deliberately muted, ideologically vague platforms that elected Carter, Clinton, and Obama in 2008; or the growth-oriented, business friendly liberalism that JFK and LBJ embodied.

Second, Bush would have a pathway to victory in November. His brand of reform-oriented conservatism might actually be his party’s only pathway: Unlike Romney, whose leadership of Massachusetts produced one signature achievement — a hodgepodge of a health-care law that he likely wishes he could take back — Bush’s legacy is an issue that Republicans ought to own but are ignoring, education reform. He also turned Florida into a national laboratory for controlling health-care costs and reining in medical tort liability, both soft spots in Obama’s record.

Shortly after Gingrich's South Carolina victory, an online petition was created in support of a Mitch Daniels run. The Daily Caller reports it was started by former members of the prematurely established group Students for Daniels. The petition is off to a slow start, currently having 6,776 signatures.

Matthew Miller of Race 4 12 pushes back on the Daniels petition and makes the case for a draft of Bobby Jindal:

Daniels makes little sense as a late entrant. He has poor name recognition and a mediocre story, little cache with the grassroots, and is every bit as bloodless as Romney. If by some miracle he managed to drag us to a convention, it’s hard to see how he’d represent any sort of compromise between the disparate factions of the GOP...

...Like Romney and Daniels, [Jindal] has a first-class demeanor; like Newt, a roving intellect. Like Barack Obama and Sarah Palin, he would be embarking on an historic candidacy, instantly catapulting him into contention (he would both be the youngest President in history and the first Indian-American President). And he marries the regional biases of the GOP’s base (which prefers Southerners) to the cultural biases of the GOP’s establishment (which prefers big brains from big schools).
He is such an obvious choice for a draft movement; so clearly superior to the other possibilities; so much more likely to actually emerge victorious from the sausage-making messiness that is a convention fight, it’s a wonder anyone else is even in discussion.

Dick Armey Backs Broke

On CNBC tonight, for House Majority Leader and head of FreedomWorks Dick Armey explicitly backed having a brokered convention.

...you're just not going to have a winner in this primary process. I'm looking for a brokered convention ... unless we get a late entry, somebody like Mitch Daniels, we're not going to have a reliable small government conservative who we can count on to advance, you know, innovative, creative ways to control this government and cause this economy to grow

Real Clear Politics has the video.

A FreedomWorks spokesperson suggested a month ago that it was interested in organizing conservatives to instigate a brokered convention.

Jeb Friend Downplays, But Does Not Rule Out, Going For Broke

Politico's Morning Money talks to "a person who knows" Jeb Bush about whether he'll jump in the race and try to win a brokered convention:

Jeb won't get in the race absent true deadlock. He likes Romney a lot but knows Romney can't win if he doesn't show that he can stand up to Gingrich on his own.

RedStater Lays Out "Favorite Son" Strategy For Voters To Create Brokered Convention

RedState.com diarist "the_invisible_hand" offers a game plan for voters who want to make a brokered convention become reality:

We need to start an appartus [sic] within states with a late filing deadline to nominate favorite son candidates. We need people specifically running to lock up delegates for the first round of voting at the convention...

...This might mean voting for favorite sons or candidates in the primary that we don’t like. I would encourage all to vote for Paul in Virginia. Vote for Newt in other states where we can’t get someone on the ballot. The goal is just to keep Romney from reaching that magic number to win the nomination on the first ballot.

Nat'l Journal: GOP Insiders "Starting to Plan and Plot" For Brokered Convention

National Journal's Ron Fournier reports that party insiders are beginning to prepare for the possibility of a brokered convention:

Republican leaders are quietly discussing the prospects of a convention fight. "This is not something I've ever had to plan or plot for," said a GOP lobbyist who once headed a major presidential campaign."I'm starting to plan and plot, or at least talking about it half-seriously with serious people."

Scarborough: GOP Establishment Trying to "Figure Out a Way To Get To a Brokered Convention"

As flagged by Newsbusters, MSNBC's Joe Scarborough revealed today that the "most powerful" conservatives are seriously considering how they can engineer a brokered convention to attract a new candidate:

The Republicans--I've said it before--they want a brokered convention. And Newt is the next step there. Do you guys think, have you guys heard, has anybody said in the Republican establishment, "man, I want Newt to be our nominee"?...

...You know I've been talking quietly to the most powerful, I think, conservative movers-and-shakers in Washington over the past couple weeks, trying to get their read. Are we really going down this path? Every single one I've spoken to is trying to figure out a way to get to a brokered convention. Everyone thinks, resents the fact that Mitt Romney's people think that he's entitled to this. I don't know if it's possible or not. But that's what the Republican establishment wants.

Backlash From Santorum Endorsement Fuels More Broke Talk

Two notable conservatives are criticizing the recent endorsement of Rick Santorum from conservative Christian leaders, worrying it will lead to a Romney nomination, and arguing only a brokered convention can prevent that outcome.

Jack Wheeler claims to have been present at the endorsement meeting and that the vote was disingenuous:

When asked one-on-one why they were going for Santorum when they knew he had no money, no organization, and stood not a ghost of a chance to win the nomination, the truth came out:

“If we unify behind Santorum, it will force Romney to pick him as his running mate – for he’ll know that’s the only way to get our support in the general (election in November).”

That’s the slimy deal behind this. They’ll go for Romney if he goes for Santorum on his ticket. Should we call them Judas Conservatives?

We suspected this all along: Santorum is a stalking horse for Romney. A vote for Santorum is a vote for Romney. Folks in South Carolina need to know this.

The cynical ploy, however, will not work – and not just because the Romney guy rolled his eyes when told about it (Romney has his heart set on Marco Rubio). It’s because there was no unity at this meeting. ...

...A majority of the folks there chose Santorum – but there was no agreement that everyone would now get behind their choice. Some will continue backing Perry. A much larger number are now committed to Gingrich as the Not Romney. Others are going to focus on doing whatever they can to see no candidate gets a majority of delegates for a brokered convention.

A brokered convention, by the way, is how Sarah Palin could get the nomination. Or Rick Perry.

Wheeler did not suggest how a brokered convention could be engineered. Renew America's Bryan Fischer, host of the American Family Association radio show "Focal Point," was concerned the Santorum endorsement lacked unity, and tried to offer a solution:

...word is out that the Gingrich supporters are complaining that they got sandbagged, that the fix was in, and that a lot of them left before the final vote. I anticipate that the Gingrich supporters in the crowd will quickly issue either a massive joint endorsement or a raft of vocal and visible individual endorsements. The Santorum consensus could get lost in the backwash and leave the impression on a gullible public that Gingrich actually won the vote.

Unless the Santorum boosters do something similar and quickly, the weekend vote will have virtually no impact on the race.

The best hope right now for social conservatives who are alarmed at the prospect of a Romney nomination is a brokered convention...

...it might be better for babies and marriages and America if all the conservative non-Romneys — Santorum, Gingrich, and Perry — hang in there as long as humanly possible in order to pull as many primary voters as they can...

...If any one of them drops out, a certain percentage of their supporters will drift to Romney. The only way to stop that is for each of them to keep campaigning, keep the heat on Romney and keep their supporters from leaving the pro-family reservation altogether.

In other words, if the pro-family movement cannot gather behind one candidate — and they can't — then it's best for the cause if they all stay in the hunt.

It's not clear that Fischer's math is right. Someone besides Romney needs to win some primaries for the convention to go broke. Continued splintering among "the pro-family movement" would not achieve that.

Also of note, failed U.S. Senate candidate from Alaska, Joe Miller, tweeted on Friday a link to an article warning against "Romney-cide", and followed with the comment: "Brokered convention offers lifeline 2 GOP"

W. Post's Blake Takes Broke Buzz Down a Notch

W. Post's Aaron Blake looks at the polls and suggests the broke buzz is overhyped:

While it’s become clear that many in the GOP are seeking an alternative to the prohibitive favorite, it’s also pretty clear that Romney is an acceptable alternative if and when it comes time for the party to embrace him.

A new Washington Post-ABC News poll shows 61 percent of Republicans view Romney favorably and just 18 percent view him unfavorably. That may not be as high as he or his supporters would like, but well more than a majority of Republicans say they like Romney and, it would seem to follow, would vote for him.

Romney hasn’t risen much in the polls, passing 30 percent in the Gallup national tracking poll for the first time just this week. But that doesn’t mean that the remaining two-thirds of Republicans won’t vote for him. Indeed, most of them probably would.

...

'It will take another candidate not only winning, but winning more than once to make this about the delegates,' said Josh Putnam of the great Frontloading HQ blog ..."

Blake doesn't take into account the anecdotal evidence that a growing number of conservatives are agitating for a brokered convention.

But it's certainly true that someone else has to eventually win a primary to force one. And that means a significant faction of conservatives actually coalescing around someone else.

Jonah Goldberg Raises The Broke Buzz Up A Notch

Jonah Goldberg, prominent conservative commentator for the National Review, turns conservative elite scuttlebutt into news for his regular Los Angeles Times column.

In a piece primarily about Mitt Romney's potential weaknesses as a general election candidate, Goldberg concludes:

His authentic inauthenticity problem isn't going away. And it's sapping enthusiasm from the rank and file. The turnout in Iowa was disastrously low, barely higher than the turnout in 2008 — and if Ron Paul hadn't brought thousands of non-Republicans to the caucus sites, it would have been decidedly lower than in 2008. That's an ominous sign given how much enthusiasm there should be for making Obama a one-term president. It's almost as if Romney's banality is infectious....

...Every four years pundits and activists talk about how cool it would be to have a brokered convention (if no candidate has 50% of the delegates by convention time). This is the first time I've heard people saying it may be necessary.

This piece is designed to further legitimize the prospect of a brokered convention and keep primary voters from letting Romney seal the deal.

Red State's Erickson: Broke Is Better Than Mitt or Rick

Red State's Erick Erickson, who often strives to speak for conservatives, decrees that if neither Newt Gingrich or Rick Perry can become the nominee, broke is best:

There is still time and there is, even at minimum, a path to a brokered convention to get a new candidate. I hope that Rick Perry can rapidly rebuild and show clear momentum in South Carolina. I hope Newt Gingrich can trounce both Romney and Santorum. But in the absence of performance by them, I hope they will not drag down the small government conservatives. If they can’t show gains, time is short, but available, for a Bobby Jindal or someone else to get in...

...I will gladly support Rick Perry or Newt Gingrich. But there is time for an alternative. We do not have to settle even for the current crop. If Perry cannot reboot and Gingrich cannot convince us he won’t implode, I endorse an open, brokered convention.

And, after listing the remaining filing deadlines to get on the various state ballots, he suggests to non-candidates that there is still time:

As you can see, there is still the ability to enter the race and, if the candidate sweeps the states, win outright or, if the candidate cannot sweep the states, force a brokered convention to get a new, more viable conservative candidate.

Conservative Leader Hatches Plan For Jindal To Go For Broke

Matt Lewis of the Daily Caller reports that conservative movement leader Morton Blackwell of the Leadership Institute is urging TX Gov. Rick Perry to drop out the presidential race but remain on the ballot, and urge his delegates to back current Perry endorser LA Gov. Bobby Jindal.

Such a play would allow Jindal to jump in late without having to worry about missing filing deadlines to get the ballot for the various primaries.

Blackwell's suggestion isn't necessarily contingent on having a brokered convention, but in all likelihood any late starting candidate would be unable to secure a majority of the convention delegates ahead of time.

Lewis reports that "sources close to Jindal’s camp insist this is just wishful thinking that is 'not coming from Jindal camp[.]'"

BREAKING: OpenConvention PAC Forms

A second upstart organization has formed to support a brokered convention and entice a new candidate to enter the Republican presidential nomination race.

First came Republicans Elect. Now we have OpenConvention.

OpenConvention is organized as a PAC and does not appear to be publicizing who is behind it. In addition to its website, it has a Facebook page and a Twitter feed.

Currently, the website is primarily encouraging signatures for an online petition in support of a brokered convention, though the petition lacks any petition language, or entity designated as the petitionee.

It also offers an online poll to gauge which non-candidate currently has the most grassroots support.

Paul Campaign: We Want A Brokered Convention

Following Ron Paul's third place finish in Iowa, which or may not result in him winning a share of Iowa's delegates, the Paul campaign bluntly told the Wall Street Journal one its primary objectives is to force a brokered convention, by racking up delegates in the low-turnout caucus states:

The 76-year-old, libertarian-leaning Republican's campaign has spent years building networks in other caucus states as well, such as Louisiana, Minnesota and Maine, where a small band of devoted volunteers can exert an outsized influence.

Unlike a primary, where residents simply cast their ballots, a caucus is a local gathering where voters openly decide which candidate to support—a format that favors hopefuls with a dedicated and organized following like that of Rep. Paul (R., Texas).

If he is able to win a plurality of just five delegations from any of the 50 states, Washington, D.C., or the five territories, Mr. Paul can vie for the nomination at the Republican convention in Tampa, Fla. That would allow him a seat at the table when the party decides its platform, giving him leverage to push his antiwar and antitax message.

Jesse Benton, Mr. Paul's campaign manager, said the goal is to win the nomination or force a brokered convention. Short of that, the campaign hopes "to have a sizable chunk of delegates, enough to influence the platform and stop these big-government conservatives," he said. The strategy runs "through the caucus states," he said.

Meanwhile, Texas radio show host Ben Barrack, at Floyd Reports, is urging people to vote for Paul in hopes of creating a brokered convention:

Voting for the best option in a field where none of the candidates meet the standard is hardly energizing. The Tea Party needs something to strive for, an objective, a way to select its nominee of choice.

One way to do that would be to use Ron Paul mania to its advantage and cast their votes with one goal in mind: a brokered convention.

For example, the only two Republican candidates who will be on the ballot in Virginia are Mitt Romney and Ron Paul. All others failed to get the required number of signatures. Whether you’re a Gingrich supporter or a disenfranchised Tea Partier who calls Virginia home, it might be in your best interest to cast your vote for Paul, which would take delegates away from Romney.

...

One of the Tea Party themes has been to “take America back.” None of the current Republican Party candidates allow them to do that, which is why Tea Party leaders need to start thinking outside the ballot box and start working together for a common cause.

A similar case is made by M. Joseph Sheppard, who sees a vote for Paul as a vote for Palin:

...the very best thing for the GOP would be for Ron Paul, following his strong showing in Iowa, to win or do very well in New Hampshire ( and of course in Virginia where Newt isn't on the ballot at this time). If that were the case then Gingrich would have a very good chance in Florida and South Carolina and the possibility of a deadlocked convention would be very real.

If that happens then what is the reality now, as someone said, the "office seeking the woman" would come into play and Sarah Palin would stand every chance of being drafted in Tampa.

For that reason I urge Palin/Gingrich/Santorum/Bachmann supporters (Perry appears to think he still has a chance, as quixotic as that hope may be) to vote for Ron Paul. I personally would not vote for him in any other states but Iowa and New Hampshire and Virginia if I had the vote there, but to vote for him in those two states is good common sense in my opinion.